Structuration des processus d'aide à la décision par analyse bipolaire

Le travail de recherche présenté dans ce mémoire s'inscrit dans le champ de l'aide à la décision multicritère. Ce champ aborde la décision dans un contexte où un groupe d'alternatives est évalué à travers un ensemble de critères (souvent contradictoires) afin d'estimer le potentiel de chacune à atteindre les objectifs fixés par un certain nombre de décideurs. La contribution de cette thèse concerne la structuration des problèmes d'aide à la décision par une approche bipolaire flexible qui permet d'évaluer les alternatives en distinguant leurs aspects positifs et négatifs vis-à-vis des objectifs à atteindre. Dans un premier temps, des modèles de structuration bipolaire sont proposés pour évaluer les problèmes de décision au niveau individuel. Les relations de synergie et les interactions potentielles entre les caractéristiques de la décision (attributs, alternatives, objectifs) sont modélisées dans un contexte bipolaire et intégrées à des approches de résolution tenant compte de l'environnement certain ou incertain dans lequel l'évaluation se déroule. Dans un deuxième temps, les décisions de groupe sont traitées en considérant l'impact du facteur humain (à travers les notions de peur, individualisme, influence, prudence, etc.) sur la capacité décisionnelle aux niveaux individuel et collectif. Des modèles d'évaluation et des techniques d'atteinte de consensus sont proposées pour deux catégories de problèmes relativement indépendants ; les problèmes de choix social et les jeux stratégiques.The research presented in this thesis concerns the multi-criteria decision support field. This field aims at helping decision makers (DM) to face decisions involving several conflicting objectives. To deals with this, decision is addressed in a context where a group of alternatives is evaluated through a set of criteria (often contradictory) to estimate the potential of each to achieve the goals. The main concern of this research is to propose flexible structuring decision problem support for evaluating alternatives distinguishing between positive and negative aspects they present with regard to objectives achievement. Bipolar structure models are proposed first to evaluate the decision problems at the individual level. The synergistic relationships and potential interactions between the decision characteristics (attributes, alternative objectives) are modeled in a bipolar context and integrated into resolution approaches taking account the certain or uncertain environment in which the evaluation takes place. In a second part, group decision problems are discussed taking into account the impact of human behaviour (influence, individualism, fear, caution, etc.) on decisional capacity at individual and collective levels. Valuation models and a consensus process are proposed in two relatively independent problem categories: social choice problems, and, strategic game problems

Résolution des problèmes de décision de groupe par analyse bipolaire

On entend par décision de groupe ici, la sélection par plusieurs décideurs, d’une ou plusieurs alternatives dans un ensemble vaste d’alternatives. Du fait de l’existence de plusieurs acteurs, le processus de décision doit tenir compte des relations d’influence (positive ou négative) qui peuvent exister entre les acteurs de la décision. De même, l’évaluation des alternatives par rapport aux objectifs des décideurs doit se faire en considérant plusieurs critères ou attributs caractérisant ces alternatives positivement ou négativement. Cette dualité, que ce soit au niveau des relations entre décideurs ou au niveau des relations entre attributs caractérisant les alternatives et les objectifs, est prise en compte dans ce papier à travers la notion de bipolarité. Ainsi, les relations entre décideurs seront évaluées à travers des mesures de concordance et de discordance et les relations entre attributs et objectifs à travers les notions de supportabilité et de rejetabilité. Au final, pour chaque décideur une alternative sera évaluée, par deux mesures ; une mesure de sélectabilité qui agrège les aspects positifs de l’alternative et une mesure de rejetabilité qui agrège les aspects négatifs dans le formalisme des jeux satisfaisants. Un processus de recherche de consensus entre décideurs est proposé pour aboutir à une solution finale dans le cas où aucune alternative ne satisfait simultanément tous les décideurs

Defining and measuring risk and opportunity in BOCR framework for decision analysis

Decision aid through analysis of benefit, opportunity, cost and risk (BOCR) offer the structural framework to get all necessary information to an effective decision making. It was investigated by researchers of differents fields (economics, engineering, management, ...) and many evaluation and recommendation methods have been published in the literature to help decision makers to make their choice. However, most of the existing methods do not focus on quantification and evaluation of uncertain parameters of decision problem representing risk and opportunity. To address these issues, we propose in this paper a new BOCR analysis framework including definition and a measure of risk and opportunity. The basic idea highlights the bipolarity nature of the attributes that characterize alternatives with regard to objectives. Indeed, we consider that alternatives are evaluated against several objectives by using many features of them known as attributes. Taking into account uncertainty of some components or relationships, this paper proposes explicit modeling of risk and opportunity in the BOCR framework. The evaluation and recommendation because of the bipolar nature are made using the Satisficing game theory

BOCR analysis applied to the management of end-of-life systems

Nowadays, most of the firms are involved in a sustainable development approach aiming to ensure financial, social and environmental performance, in order to satisfy legislation and customers that have become increasingly demanding. Reverse logistics is part of the process of sustainable development. This process triggered by the consumer consists in a series of activities required for recovery and reprocessing of used products. These products can be reused in some cases. In the framework of sustainable development, this paper is concerned by the design and the evaluation process of withdrawal plans in the field of aircraft dismantling. A multi-criteria decision aid support based on BOCR analysis is proposed to select adequate withdrawal plans. Variables used to evaluate a candidate withdrawal plan constitute what we refer to as repatriation trajectory. A repatriation plan is evaluated on a bipolar scale by two measures namely selectability measure and rejectability measure in the framework of satisficing game to highlight positive aspects and negative aspects with regards to decision making main objectives

Evaluation process in end-of-life systems management using BOCR analysis

Nowadays, sustainability is an indicator or even a concept that guides many public as well as private decisions or actions. In manufacturing sectors, firms are paying an increasing attention to this concept with regards to their products once they are the end of their life; this attention is not only due to the respect of norms and laws policy makers are continuously editing to protect the environment or the sensitivity of consumers to ecological issues but also because of possibilities of new business this concept offers. Indeed, firms noticed that they can create value with the end-of-life products by dismantling them and recovering parts and/or materials that can be re-introduced into manufacturing process, into maintenance process, etc.; or just by the improvement of their image with regards to public opinion. The process of recuperating end-of-life products, known as reverse logistics, is therefore a sustainable development process which will be triggered by the consumer and consists in a series of activities; one such activity concerns withdrawal problem that consists in responding some questions such as: where the end-of-life product must be dismantled?, how to bring the product from its actual position to the dismantling place?, who is in charge of this activity?, etc. This paper considers the issue of evaluating and optimizing the withdrawal process in the field of aircraft dismantling. The withdrawal plan evaluation is formulated here as multi-criteria / multi-objectives decision making problem and solved using BOCR analysis as the structuring framework for the elicitation process and satisficing game theory as the most suitable mathematical tool for recommendation process

Supplier - Manufacturer relationship modeling through satisficing games

In this paper we propose a framework to analyze supplier - manufacturer relationship within a supply chain in two steps: the first step put the manufacturer in the position of a decision maker who want to select a short list of suppliers from a prospective and possibly huge list to respond to some of its primary objectives; in a second stage a negotiation process will be engaged between manufacturer and a selected supplier in order to establish the most mutual profitable contract. Bipolar analysis that is evaluating a possible alternative decision by assessing its degree of achieving pursued objectives and its degree of preventing that achievement or degree of resources consumption is highlighted as the main paradigm that guid decision process in the two steps. By so doing, satisficing games theory is used as the mathematical tool to modelize and analyze these decision making situations

A bipolar consensus approach for group decision making problems

International audienceThis paper addresses the collaborative group decision making problems considering a consensus processes to achieve a common legitimate solution. The proposed resolution model is based on individual bipolar assessment. Each decision maker evaluates alternatives through selectability and rejectability measures which respectively represent the positive and negative aspects of alternatives considering objectives achievement. The impact of human behavior (influence, individualism, fear, caution, etc.) on decisional capacity has been taken into account. The influence degrees exerted mutually by decision makers are modeled through concordance and discordance measures. The individualistic nature of decision makers has been taken into account from the individualism degree. In order to achieve a common solution(s), models of consensus building are proposed based on the satisficing game theory formalism for collective decision problems. An application example is given to illustrate the proposed concepts

Decision evaluation process in end-of-life systems management

International audienceIn manufacturing sectors, firms are paying an increasing attention to sustainability concept with regard to their end-of-life products in order to respect environmental norms and satisfy the consumer sensitivity. This practise allows creating value by reintroducing dismantling and recovering parts and/or materials of end-of-life products into manufacturing process, or into maintenance process. Thus, deconstruction processes are developed in order to examine all activities addressing the end of life (EOL) systems to ensure its disposal according to environmental constraints when seeking an economic optimum. In this context, one of the first tasks to perform is to repatriate the EOL systems at lowest cost considering geographical optimization of treatment centers. Considering this point, the present paper proposes an evaluation and optimization approach for the withdrawal location process in the field of aircraft dismantling. Given the multitude and heterogeneity of characteristics to be taken into account, we propose to consider dismantling site location problem as multi-criteria/multi-objectives decision making problem and solve it using a new AHP-BOCR approach based on qualitative and quantitative evaluations. A bipolar structuring framework is considered to distinguish positive and negative aspects in the elicitation/evaluation process to avoid compensation and satisficing game theory is used as suitable mathematical tool for recommendation process. An experimental study is carried out to show the usefulness of the framework

Evaluation Model in Decision Analysis: Bipolar Approach

International audienceThree main approaches presently dominate preferences derivation or evaluation process in decision analysis (selecting, ranking or sorting options, alternatives, actions or decisions): value type approach (a value function or an utility measure is derived for each alternative to represent its adequacy with decision goal); outranking methods (a pair comparison of alternatives are carried up under each attribute or criteria to derive a pre-order on the alternatives set); and decision rules approach (a set of decision rules are derived by a learning process from a decision table with possible missing data). All these approaches suppose to have a single decision objective to satisfy and all alternatives characterized by a common set of attributes or criteria. In this paper we adopt an approach that highlights bipolar nature of attributes with regards to objectives that we consider to be inherent to any decision analysis problem. We, therefore, introduce supporting and rejecting notions to describ attributes and objectives relationships leading to an evaluation model in terms of two measures or indices (selectability and rejectability) for each alternative in the framework of satisficing game theory. Supporting or rejecting degree of an attribute with regard to an objective is assessed using known techniques such as analytic hierarchy process (AHP). This model allows alternatives to be characterized by heteregeneous attributes and incomparability between alternatives in terms of Pareto-equilibria